Invasive species often sound like an inevitable consequence of globalization, impossible to tackle effectively. In Work Package 3 we will use available information on the traits, impacts, current and likely future spread of invaders, to identify, quantify and prioritise major threats to native species and sites of conservation concern. This will allow optimising our management resources on the sites and species with highest probability of success, contributing to protecting biodiversity.
Work Package 3 will develop reproducible workflows to identify, quantify and prioritise major threats posed by aquatic IAS on threatened species and sites of conservation interest. This objective involves identifying priority invasive species and native species under threat, modelling the likely spread of priority species under climate change scenarios, assess the cumulative risks posed
Work Package 3 of GuardIAS focuses on developing a robust and spatially explicit framework to prioritise management actions against invasive alien species (IAS), supporting the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 target to “decrease the number of Red List species threatened by invasive alien species by 50% by 2030.“
The methodological approach in Work Package 3 unfolds across four interrelated steps. First, we will identify priority aquatic IAS and the Red Listed Species most vulnerable to them.
Second, we will use machine-learning algorithms to predict the current and future distribution of priority IAS under different climate scenarios. In addition, we wil combine these projections with Red List distribution data to pinpoint future hotspots where IAS impacts on biodiversity are likely to be most severe. Cross-comparisons between native and invasive ranges will allow us to map areas of highest cumulative risk.
Third, we will integrate species traits, distributions, and impact data into CIMPAL, a standardised tool to quantify the cumulative ecological risks of IAS across Europe.
Finally, we will use spatial prioritisation tools to identify where and which IAS management actions should be targeted, optimising the allocation of limited resources. We will also design a cost-effective monitoring network to enhance early detection in high-risk areas.
The outputs will include ranked IAS lists, priority maps for intervention, and optimised monitoring strategies, providing an actionable roadmap to safeguard Europe’s threatened species and sites.
Work Package 3 Deliverables:
2026 Updates
In 2026, we will identify priority freshwater and marine invasive species and sites of conservation concern across Europe under current and future climate change scenarios. These sites will include both high invasives impact hotspots – areas of high native biodiversity with high exposure to invasion; and brightspots – high-biodiversity areas that remain comparatively less exposed.
I am most looking forward to developing future invasion scenarios that illustrate how different climate and management trajectories could shape biodiversity outcomes. These scenarios will not only support evidence-based decision making, but also demonstrate that proactive management can make a real difference. By visualising alternative futures, we can show that effective action today is key to protecting native species tomorrow.
GuardIAS is an extraordinarily applied project, focused on developing practical tools to support invasive species management. I am excited to hear feedback from those working on the ground as well as policy-makers and to learn together how science can be better aligned with real-world needs to more effectively preserve biodiversity.
I’m particularly intrigued by the AI tools being developed in WP1 to extract and deliver information on invasive species. This is a novel and rapidly evolving technology, and I’m curious to see how it can enhance our workflows and support faster, more informed decision-making in IAS research and management.
I hope that the future invasion scenarios we develop for aquatic species, alongside the terrestrial scenarios from our colleagues in OneSTOP, will set a new standard for how we anticipate and address biological invasions. These paired scenarios will provide the kind of quantitative, forward-looking evidence that is essential to drive policy and action. While invasive species pose a threat comparable to climate change or land-use change, we still lack predictive scenarios to guide responses at that scale. Our work aims to fill that gap and generate lasting tools for strategic planning and risk reduction.
“Aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to biological invasions. By integrating predictive models, cumulative impact assessments, and spatial prioritisation, WP3 provides the tools needed to mitigate their impacts on the species and ecosystems most at risk.
Our freshwater and marine ecosystems are under silent threat from invasive species. With smart planning and targeted action, we can defend Europe’s native aquatic biodiversity before it’s too late.”
“For over 35 years, since I first began studying non-indigenous species, I have dreamed of tools that could reveal the ‘Big Picture’ of the transfer, spread, and impacts of invasive aquatic species. Thanks to advances in new technologies, the GuardIAS project now offers an outstanding opportunity to make that vision a reality.”
Belinda Gallardo is a senior scientist at the Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC), where she heads the Ecological Restoration Group. Specialising in invasive alien species (IAS), climate change and its effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services, Dr Gallardo has participated in 37 national and international projects.
She is the author of more than 100 publications, including a global synthesis on the impacts of freshwater IAS on biodiversity, ecosystem services and protected areas, and various IAS prioritisation exercises for their management.
Dr Gallardo is a member of multiple international panels and councils, such as the European Council on Biological Invasions (Neobiota), the IUCN EICAT Authority and the Spanish Scientific Council advising on the listing of species.
